The U.S. census is far more than a statistical exercise. Every ten years, the Constitution requires a count of every person living in the states, and the population totals that emerge from that count are used to reassign seats in the House of Representatives and votes in the Electoral College — a process known as congressional apportionment. Because those totals determine how much political power each state holds for the following decade, the seemingly mundane task of counting residents carries enormous consequences.
That is why a renewed effort by the Trump administration to change who gets included in the apportionment counts is drawing intense scrutiny. According to NPR correspondent Hansi Lo Wang, the administration wants to — for the first time in American history — leave out any resident who is not a U.S. citizen or a green-card holder. Such a change would fundamentally alter the population base used to distribute political power among the states.
The proposal is not entirely new. President Trump attempted a similar overhaul during his first term, but the effort ultimately failed. Now, with the 2030 census on the horizon, he is trying again, and the stakes remain just as high. If implemented, the plan would make certain residents effectively invisible in the apportionment counts, removing them from the calculations that decide how many House seats and Electoral College votes each state receives.
The practical effect would likely be significant. Because some states have larger populations of certain noncitizen residents — including people without legal status — the proposal could shift power away from those states and toward states with fewer noncitizen residents. This would not be a minor adjustment. Congressional apportionment and Electoral College allocations shape the balance of power in national politics, influencing everything from legislative priorities to presidential elections.
The Constitution's requirement for a decennial count of every person living in the states has long been understood to include all residents, regardless of citizenship or immigration status. The Trump administration's proposal would break with that tradition, raising profound legal and constitutional questions. As a result, the plan is widely expected to set off court battles, with opponents likely to argue that it violates the Constitution's plain language and longstanding precedent.
The process itself operates like a relay race, as the NPR comic explains. The runners are the commerce secretary, who oversees the Census Bureau; the president; and Congress. The batons being passed are the state population counts and the House reapportionment numbers. Each actor plays a distinct role in turning raw census data into political power, and any attempt to change the rules at one stage can ripple through the entire system.
The commerce secretary's role is particularly important because the Census Bureau falls under that department's authority. How the bureau conducts the count — and who it decides to include in the final apportionment numbers — can determine the outcome for states across the country. The president then transmits the apportionment counts to Congress, which uses them to allocate House seats. If noncitizens were excluded from those counts, the numbers transmitted would look very different from the traditional census totals.
Historically, the census has counted all residents, including noncitizens, for apportionment purposes. This approach reflects the constitutional text, which calls for an "actual Enumeration" of the people in each state, without limiting the count to citizens. The Trump administration's proposal would represent a sharp departure from that understanding, and legal scholars expect the courts to be the ultimate arbiter of whether such a change can stand.
The timing of the renewed push is notable. The next census takes place in 2030, and preparations for such a massive undertaking begin years in advance. By raising the issue now, the administration may be attempting to shape the rules well before the count begins, potentially influencing how the Census Bureau designs its questionnaires and tabulates its results. Critics warn that even the perception of a changed count could depress participation in immigrant communities, undermining the accuracy of the census itself.
The political implications are difficult to overstate. House seats and Electoral College votes are zero-sum: if one state gains, another loses. States with large noncitizen populations, often concentrated in urban and coastal areas, could see their representation reduced. States with smaller noncitizen populations could gain additional seats and electoral influence. Over the course of a decade, those shifts could reshape the national political landscape.
Beyond apportionment, census data is used for a wide range of purposes, including the distribution of federal funding, the drawing of legislative districts, and research across government and the private sector. Excluding noncitizens from the apportionment counts would not necessarily change every use of census data, but it would mark a significant change in how the country defines the population that underpins its representative government.
The NPR comic, originally published in 2020 and 2021 and updated for 2026, was designed to explain these complex dynamics in an accessible way. Using the character of correspondent Hansi Lo Wang as a guide, it walks readers through the constitutional requirement, the apportionment process, and the administration's proposed change. The comic format reflects an effort to make an often-overlooked subject understandable to a broad audience.
As the 2030 census approaches, the debate over who counts is likely to intensify. Supporters of the administration's proposal argue that apportionment should be based on citizens or lawful permanent residents, while opponents contend that the Constitution and decades of practice require counting all residents. The outcome will depend not only on political will but also on how the judicial system interprets the Constitution's census clause.
For now, the proposal remains a plan rather than a settled policy. But its expected legal challenges mean the issue could take years to resolve, potentially reaching the Supreme Court. In the meantime, states, advocacy groups, and the Census Bureau itself must prepare for a count whose rules may still be in flux — a situation that introduces uncertainty into a process designed to be predictable and uniform.
What is clear is that the census is not merely a bureaucratic headcount. It is the mechanism by which political power is distributed among the states, and any attempt to change who is included in that count is, at its core, an attempt to change who holds power. That is why the Trump administration's renewed effort is being watched so closely — and why the coming court battles will matter far beyond the 2030 count itself.
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